Diab, R. D., , Preston-Whyte R. A. , , and Washington R. , 1991: Distribution of rainfall by synoptic type over Natal, South Africa. Using the definition of forecast skill as (CLIPER DPE − UKMO DPE)/CLIPER DPE × 100%, where DPE is the direct positional error between the model and observed center, the skill scores were 23%, 36%, and 51% for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts. The model only simulated over 200 mm in a very small area in the low-lying region near the Mozambique border, and the model-predicted region of heavy rainfall did not extend far enough west into northern South Africa. Cyclone Eline, with speeds of 120km per hour, hit Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa and other countries in the region with devastating effects. Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. At least 172 deaths have been reported and 327 people are reportedly missing in Zimbabwe (OCHA, 27 March 2019). Zimbabwe and Malawi. Part I: Interannual composite patterns. Geogr, 21 , 23–50. Hence, Eline regained tropical cyclone status on 21 February when it was located about 80% of the way across the channel (Fig. February–March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. Real-time advisory positions produced by La Réunion were used to verify observations of the location of the system. Heming, J. T., 1994: Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office. 2000), the January and February 2000 anomalies show stronger subtropical high pressure in the SWIO, further enhancing the already favorable La Niña westward steering flow toward Mozambique. padding: 0; In 2000, Cyclone Eline devastated parts of the country, claiming 136 lives and destroying tens of thousands of houses. This evidence indicates that local forecasters should keep informed of local land surface and SST conditions as well as current La Niña state, given the evidence of their influence on inland penetration of SWIO TCs. Information brochure, Météo France, La Réunion, 12 pp. Six hours prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the Mozambique coast. Thus, conditions over the landmass were, together with those of the south Indian Ocean, very favorable for Eline's intensification near Mozambique and penetration 2000 km inland. The previous major cyclone, Cyclone Eline of February 2000, had a slightly different track but still coming in through the central Eastern Highlands and then moving right across Zimbabwe weakening as it did so and finally reaching Namibia as a minor depression. TRMM data suggests that this tongue was even warmer than that shown in Fig. Over southern Namibia, the February and March rainfall were each over two standard deviations above average and JFM 2000 represented by far the wettest season since 1976. These pressure anomalies and the resulting enhanced easterlies or westward steering flow along 15°–25°S and cyclonic shear equatorward of this zonal band were, together with the SST conditions, very conducive for the generation and subsequent westward track of Eline. 0000025096 00000 n display: flex; Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. It is only after it has passed over Madagascar and entered the Mozambique Channel Distribution of rainfall by synoptic type over Natal, South Africa. Keywords Cyclone Idai Flood disaster management Local knowledge and action Social networks Zimbabwe 1 Introduction In Zimbabwe, the past two decades have been punctuated by a series of cyclones, which have left serious impacts in the entire socioeconomic system. 0000007034 00000 n These areas included the track of ex-TC Eline across southern Africa, implying that the precursor surface conditions over the land were considerably moister than average. Since there is a lack of aircraft and other data, monitoring of TCs in the region is essentially based on satellite imagery. 2003). The 0200 and 0400 UTC 25 February bulletins repeated these warnings and noted that although the storm was weakening over Botswana and rainfall over northeastern South Africa should moderate, heavy rains should still be expected that day. This lack of sounding data causes significant difficulties for model verification, reliable data assimilation into operational models like Eta, and forecast accuracy in the region. Kummerow, C., , Barnes C. W. , , Kozu T. , , Shiue J. , , and Simpson J. , 1998: The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensor package. Dyson, L. L., , and van Heerden J. , 2001: The heavy rainfall and floods over the northeastern Interior of South Africa during February 2000. Like pentad 1, the cyclonic feature is not only intensified relative to the mean but also shifted south over Namibia, reflecting the presence of ex-Eline itself. 4b–g, 6b,d). 2) and its associated low-level moisture convergence and convection (Figs. This La Niña induced very wet conditions over southern Africa prior to the event, leading to favorable soil moisture and land surface conditions for westward penetration of Eline and ongoing convection. 1 as well as information about local forecasts and observations during Eline. At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. Contours show moisture convergence (shaded) or divergence (dashed) with an interval of 0.5 g kg−1 s−1, (a) Sea surface temperature (SST) during the week prior to the generation of Eline. Zimbabwe has experienced serious floods over the past two decades. Cyclone Idai triggered floods in Zimbabwe floods: No lessons learnt. U.K. Met. Cyclone Idai is reported to be the deadliest storm system so far this year — and may be the worst disaster ever to strike the southern hemisphere, according to the UN. It resulted in loss of life, damage to homes, fields, schools and roads, and disruption to livelihoods. background: #ddd; J. Climatol, 11 , 877–888. 0000015934 00000 n Reason, C. J. C., , Allan R. J. , , Lindesay J. Also, there was increased moisture flux into eastern Namibia from the SWIO where Eline itself is evident. Second, a trough aligned northwest–southeast across the southern African interior existed on 21–24 February (Fig. These challenges motivate strongly for innovative solutions, including developing better partnerships with universities, industry, and international operational agencies. height: 4px; Due to the huge damage and loss of life, global media attention was extensive. Natl. Information brochure, Météo France, La Réunion, 12 pp. A strong ridge of high pressure extending to midlevels was in existence across eastern South Africa and the neighboring SWIO throughout 14–24 February (Figs. Only about 5% of TCs in the southwest Indian Ocean over the last 50 years actually made landfall somewhere along the east coast of southern Africa. J. Cyclone Idai hit Zimbabwe during the weekend of 15–17 March 2019, bringing heavy rains and strong winds that triggered flooding and landslides. In fact, the strongest recorded gust (137 km h−1) occurred in northwest Mauritius a few hours later at noon LT. Two other stations also recorded wind gusts over 100 km h−1 during the late morning of February 15 after the “no warning” signal had been issued. Late on 22 February, ex-Eline passed the Mozambique/Zimbabwe border some 200 km inland from the channel (Fig. Although Eline occurred farther south (17°–18°S), these plots indicate (not shown) that over 8°–12°S, 50°–70°E, the thermocline was indeed deeper than the model climatology during January and early February 2000. Convection over Namibia was weaker than a day or so previously as a result of subsidence from the outflow ahead of Eline. SAWB rainfall forecasts from the Eta model (using the Betts–Miller scheme) for northern South Africa have been compared with observations for February 2000 by Dyson and van Heerden (2001). 0000002353 00000 n Olivier, J., 1993: Flood producing weather systems: Tropical cyclones. The above statistics do not include the track after landfall in Mozambique. margin: 0; Local forecasters should be aware of the precursor synoptic conditions for TC landfall, the previous few months' rainfall, and the current state of the vegetation (and by inference, soil moisture), as well as regional SST anomalies, the orientation of the 28°C isotherm, and ENSO phase. RESCUE OPERATION: Villagers in Mataga, Mberengwa, rescue the driver of a Toyota Surf who was attempting to cross a flooded Matindingu River on Friday. Cyclone Idai: Mozambique city of Beira hit by storm - BBC News Less well known is that one of the weather systems that contributed to these floods (ex-Tropical Cyclone Eline) … Vitart et al. Other satellite products, available to La Réunion after the 1998/99 season, are from research-type platforms (Special Sensor Microwave Imager, Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit) and have led to improvements in TC forecast accuracy (RSMC La Réunion 2002). tating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Af-rica brought about by Tropical Cyclone (TC) Eline in late February and a tropical depression early in the month. It has been argued that large-scale precursor synoptic conditions (strong ridge south of the Mozambique Channel, preceding trough over southern Africa, and an easterly steering current at midlevels) promoted the track of Eline. La Niña conditions strengthened again during early 2000 after a lull in mid-1999 and warm SST anomalies evolved near Mozambique (Fig. 1) and contributed significantly to the semidesert region of This may be something that could be implemented by forecast offices with more resources, for example, RSMC La Réunion. In February 2000, Cyclone Eline hit central Mozambique after weeks of flooding, and their combined effects killed around 700 people and caused an estimated $500 million (USD) in damage. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. These authors present evidence that years with deeper-than-average thermocline depth in the 8°–12°S, 50°–70°E region tend to have more TC in the SWIO than those with shallower thermocline depths. 8c) corresponds to the second major wet spell of the summer over southern Namibia, including its wettest day (29 February), and shows some similarities in moisture flux with pentad 1 over the mainland. Note that Fig. In February 2000, only Irene did two ascents per day (0000 and 1200 UTC), while only the 0000 UTC ascent was done at Pietersburg. February 2000 will long be remembered for devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa brought about by Tropical Cyclone (TC) Eline in late February and a tropical depression early in the month. It was the worst in half a century. Since then the remnants of storm have been causing heavy rains over Zimbabwe and Malawi. Atmos. In this section, we consider the question as to whether the large-scale climatic and ocean conditions during austral summer 2000 also helped promote Eline's anomalous evolution. For financially constrained agencies in southern Africa, developing simple CLIPER-type models (such as those in use in Mauritius) that incorporate regional and ENSO conditions available on the Internet may be more feasible. 1998) data. Six hours prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the Mozambique coast. Third, easterly winds at 500 hPa of about 10 m s−1 associated with the northern half of the ridge occurred in the southern Mozambique Channel and neighboring SWIO, and acted as a steering current toward and across southern Africa during 14– 28 February (Fig. Meteor. W. J. R. Alexander, Ed., University of Pretoria, 23–34. February–March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. } Wendy Nkuna and Tracey Gill, South African Weather Service (SAWS), provided information about forecasts issued by the then South African Weather Bureau. Weather forecasting elsewhere in southern Africa tends to rely on European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts (ECMWF) or UKMO products combined with manual analyses based on any available local station data, and these forecasts are not archived. Andrew Singleton produced some of the figures. 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